Assignment 1

You must provide forecasts for the following items:

Google closing stock price on 20 March 2024 [Data].
Maximum temperature at Melbourne airport on 10 April 2024 [Data].
The difference in points (Collingwood minus Essendon) scored in the AFL match between Collingwood and Essendon for the Anzac Day clash. 25 April 2024 [Data].
The seasonally adjusted estimate of total employment for April 2024. ABS CAT 6202, to be released around mid May 2024 [Data].
Google closing stock price on 22 May 2024 [Data].

For each of these, give a point forecast and an 80% prediction interval, and explain in a couple of sentences how each was obtained.

The [Data] links give you possible data to start with, but you are free to use any data you like.
There is no need to use any fancy models or sophisticated methods. Simple is better for this assignment. The methods you use should be understandable to any high school student.
Full marks will be awarded if you submit the required information, and are able to meaningfully justify your results in a couple of sentences in each case.
Once the true values in each case are available, we will come back to this exercise and see who did the best using the scoring method described in class.
The student with the lowest score is the winner of our forecasting competition, and will win a $50 cash prize.
The assignment mark is not dependent on your score.

Due: 8 March 2024
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