Assignment 1
You must provide forecasts for the following items:
- Google closing stock price on 20 March 2024 [Data].
- Maximum temperature at Melbourne airport on 10 April 2024 [Data].
- The difference in points (Collingwood minus Essendon) scored in the AFL match between Collingwood and Essendon for the Anzac Day clash. 25 April 2024 [Data].
- The seasonally adjusted estimate of total employment for April 2024. ABS CAT 6202, to be released around mid May 2024 [Data].
- Google closing stock price on 22 May 2024 [Data].
For each of these, give a point forecast and an 80% prediction interval, and explain in a couple of sentences how each was obtained.
- The [Data] links give you possible data to start with, but you are free to use any data you like.
- There is no need to use any fancy models or sophisticated methods. Simple is better for this assignment. The methods you use should be understandable to any high school student.
- Full marks will be awarded if you submit the required information, and are able to meaningfully justify your results in a couple of sentences in each case.
- Once the true values in each case are available, we will come back to this exercise and see who did the best using the scoring method described in class.
- The student with the lowest score is the winner of our forecasting competition, and will win a $50 cash prize.
- The assignment mark is not dependent on your score.
Due: 8 March 2024
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