Retail Project

Objective: To forecast a real time series using ETS and ARIMA models.

Data: The data are monthly measures of retail trade volume in Australia, obtained from the ABS. Each student will be use a different time series, selected using their student ID number as follows. This is the same series that you used in Assignment 2.

get_my_data <- function(student_id) {
  all_data <- readr::read_rds("")
  while(TRUE) {
    retail <- filter(all_data, `Series ID` == sample(`Series ID`, 1))
    if(!any($Turnover))) return(retail)
# Replace the argument with your student ID
retail <- get_my_data(12345678)

Assignment value: This assignment is worth 20% of the overall unit assessment.


You should produce forecasts of the series using ETS and ARIMA models. Write a report in Rmarkdown or Quarto format of your analysis explaining carefully what you have done and why you have done it. Your report should include the following elements.


Due: 24 May 2024