Forecasting competition

You must provide forecasts for the following items:

The 7-day moving average of transit trade volumes (in millions of metric tons) through the Strait of Hormuz on 7 August 2026. Data — click “Transit Trade Volume” tab
The difference in runs scored between Australia and Bangladesh in the second cricket test to be held 22-26 August 2026, Mackay. Give result as (Australia total minus Bangladesh total). Data
Maximum temperature in Celsius at Melbourne airport on 13 September 2026 Data
Google closing stock price in $US on 5 October 2026 Data
The seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of employed people (in millions) for September 2026. ABS CAT 6202, to be released on 15 October 2026 Data

For each of these, give a point forecast and an 80% prediction interval, and explain in a couple of sentences how each was obtained.

The Data links give you possible data to start with, but you are free to use any data you like.
There is no need to use any fancy models or sophisticated methods. Simple is better for this assignment. The methods you use should be understandable to any high school student.
Full marks will be awarded if you submit the required information, and are able to meaningfully justify your results in a sentence or two in each case.
Once the true values in each case are available, we will come back to this exercise and see who did the best using the scoring method described in class.
The student with the most accurate forecasts is the winner of our forecasting competition, and will win a $50 cash prize.
The assignment mark is not dependent on your score.

Due: 3 August 2026
Submit

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